Quarterbacks are measured by wins and losses, and no one has done that better than former Cal star Goff this season
History says former Cal star Jared Goff should be a leading contender for the NFL MVP award this year, perhaps even the favorite. The opinion of everyone that matters says he isn’t.
The people in position of influence claim that four players are vying for MVP – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley and Joe Burrow. And MVP voting is often based on media momentum. In other words, once the media begins saying a player is a strong MVP candidate, voters tend to latch on to that narrative and find reasons to agree.
A check of the betting odds supports the four-player MVP contingent. Allen is the favorite on virtually every major betting site. Jackson is second on every site. There is a gap after that with Barkley third on some betting sites and Burrow third on others. Fifth, a long way behind the others, is Goff at odds ranging from 100-to-1 to 150-to-1. (MVP voting ends before the postseason starts. Some believe MVP voting should take place after the playoffs, but it has always been a regular-season award.)
Granted, this is a Cal sports site, so we acknowledge the bias. However, a pretty strong case can be made for Goff’s MVP candidacy, a case that’s being ignored.
It begins with the long-held belief that a quarterback’s worth is based – almost solely — on the success of his team. Statistics are used to gauge the value of receivers or running backs, but it’s different for a quarterback, whose sole purpose as the centerpiece of an offense is to win games. Period.
Tom Brady is considered the best quarterback of alltime not for the numbers he produced but for one simple statistic – seven Super Bowl titles. Like it or not, the team’s success is the measuring stick for quarterbacks, and you can’t ignore that tenet simply because it’s not convenient for your argument.
MVP voters have abided this supposition through the years; won-loss record has been the main criterion considered in MVP voting since the award began, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
The last three MVPs have been quarterbacks who played for a team with the best regular-season record in the NFL, and the last seven were quarterbacks who played for teams that had the best record in their conference. Allen, Burrow and Jackson did not do that.
Of the past 15 MVPs, only two played for a team that did not have the best record in its conference:
—2016 when Matt Ryan of the 11-5 Falcons won the MVP over Dak Prescott of the 13-3 Cowboys, who had the best record in the NFC, and Tom Brady of the 14-2 Patriots, although it should be noted Brady missed four games that season.
—2012 when running back Adrian Peterson of the 10-6 Vikings won after rushing for 2,097 yards, the second-most in NFL history and just eight yards off the record. (Remember, stats matter for running backs.)
And the trend continued down through the MVP history, until the early 1970s, with the quarterback of the team with the best record winning the MVP a great majority of the time. Before then, quarterback play was not as influential as it is today.
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